***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 99 1 0 100 0.7 -2.2 -1.8 -5.9 3.2 5.7 2.5 4.0 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 -0.7 -4.1 -2.0 -6.2 3.0 4.7 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 0.6 -3.2 -2.2 -6.9 2.4 4.1 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -4.7 -8.3 -5.3 -6.7 3.8 5.0 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 0.7 -2.0 -3.2 -6.3 4.4 6.1 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 1.0 0.2 -3.0 -4.8 12.9 14.8 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 -0.9 -3.3 -1.0 -5.1 5.9 8.3 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 -4.2 -6.1 -3.7 -6.1 6.8 8.9 -2.1 -0.5 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 1.0 -2.6 -2.4 -6.5 3.3 4.8 3.4 5.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 99 1 0 100 0.4 -2.3 -3.5 -6.7 5.1 6.9 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 0.5 -2.6 -3.1 -6.7 4.0 5.8 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 1.0 -1.5 -3.4 -6.2 5.7 7.8 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 0.4 -1.5 -2.4 -5.9 7.9 10.9 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 0.5 -3.8 -3.3 -7.7 2.5 3.9 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 -0.8 -5.1 -3.4 -6.1 2.9 4.2 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 0.9 -1.6 -3.5 -6.4 5.3 7.4 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 -0.9 -3.9 -2.2 -6.0 3.6 5.2 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 -0.2 -1.9 -3.8 -6.7 6.0 8.0 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -0.5 -4.8 -2.6 -6.9 1.8 3.3 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 -1.7 -2.8 -3.8 -5.4 10.9 13.5 0.3 2.0 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 0.7 -2.6 -1.8 -6.4 3.3 5.2 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 -0.6 -5.0 -2.8 -6.9 1.9 3.1 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -0.2 -4.8 -3.0 -7.4 1.3 2.6 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 0.8 -2.9 -2.8 -7.2 3.4 5.1 3.2 5.2 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 0.2 -1.9 -2.1 -5.4 5.7 8.3 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.9 -1.7 -4.0 16.5 19.0 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 0.5 -1.7 -1.3 -5.1 6.1 9.2 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -0.5 -4.9 -4.8 -6.9 3.2 4.3 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 -1.6 -3.5 -3.7 -6.2 7.6 10.1 0.6 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 -0.6 -3.9 -1.9 -6.2 2.8 4.7 1.5 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------