***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.9 5.3 0.6 56.0 55.8 2.0 4.2 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.7 4.9 0.2 51.6 52.6 2.5 4.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.9 5.6 0.3 53.4 53.5 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -0.1 -0.5 2.2 0.1 51.4 52.9 -2.6 -0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.6 5.5 3.7 0.4 54.1 54.5 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.5 3.6 1.2 61.7 60.1 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.8 5.3 0.5 55.5 55.9 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.0 -0.4 4.0 1.1 61.3 59.8 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.7 4.9 0.7 57.1 56.4 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.7 4.6 1.1 60.4 58.9 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.1 6.1 3.8 0.5 54.7 54.9 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.5 4.0 0.8 58.2 57.6 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.5 3.7 0.9 60.1 59.1 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.7 5.8 1.0 59.7 58.1 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.7 4.7 2.3 -0.3 47.1 49.4 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.3 3.5 0.6 55.9 55.9 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.7 5.3 0.4 54.2 54.7 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 6.1 5.9 5.3 1.6 65.5 62.4 3.1 4.6 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.8 5.1 0.1 50.5 51.5 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 3.7 3.7 3.6 1.8 68.2 64.5 0.2 1.9 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.3 5.3 0.6 56.3 55.9 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.2 5.1 0.1 51.5 52.4 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.4 5.6 0.2 52.2 52.6 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.5 5.7 1.1 60.6 58.8 4.1 6.2 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.9 3.8 0.7 57.0 56.7 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.1 3.6 1.0 62.0 60.6 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.6 5.0 0.8 58.7 57.7 2.5 4.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.5 5.9 2.4 0.0 49.7 51.4 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.8 4.0 4.8 1.7 66.4 63.1 0.5 2.3 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.6 4.9 0.2 52.0 52.8 2.2 4.3 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------