***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.0 5.7 0.2 52.0 52.7 4.4 6.8 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.2 5.5 -0.1 49.5 51.0 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.8 7.5 6.1 0.1 51.0 52.0 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.9 0.6 2.4 -0.4 46.3 47.6 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.5 4.1 0.1 51.0 51.5 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.1 3.4 0.6 55.6 55.2 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.9 5.6 0.0 50.5 51.6 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -0.2 4.0 0.7 56.8 56.3 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.3 5.1 0.4 53.5 53.4 5.7 7.9 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.2 4.6 0.6 55.6 55.2 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.6 4.0 0.1 51.0 51.8 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.8 4.2 0.5 54.7 54.9 5.3 7.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.1 3.8 0.6 56.0 56.0 5.3 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.2 5.5 0.2 52.2 52.5 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.2 2.6 -0.8 42.6 44.5 3.9 6.2 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.0 3.6 0.1 51.2 52.1 5.7 7.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.6 5.8 5.5 -0.1 49.2 50.5 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.8 5.0 0.9 58.1 57.1 4.9 6.9 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.3 5.7 -0.1 49.3 50.8 4.1 6.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.8 3.3 1.3 63.1 61.1 1.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.8 5.6 0.3 52.6 52.8 5.4 7.5 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.1 6.4 5.5 -0.2 48.0 49.4 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.7 6.0 0.0 49.7 51.0 4.4 6.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.5 5.6 0.4 53.8 53.8 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.6 4.0 0.2 51.6 52.1 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.0 4.0 1.0 60.2 59.1 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 5.2 0.3 52.7 53.2 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 6.5 2.5 -0.6 44.5 46.1 4.8 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.6 4.4 1.1 59.8 58.4 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.3 5.5 0.0 50.0 51.5 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------