***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.5 2.1 2.8 -1.8 23.1 28.4 3.1 4.6 6.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.0 1.4 2.4 -2.2 19.4 25.2 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 3.1 2.5 2.9 -2.2 20.0 25.3 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -2.3 -2.6 -0.3 -2.1 20.3 24.5 -1.4 0.0 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.5 3.1 1.5 -1.7 24.5 28.7 3.9 5.3 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.2 3.9 1.4 -0.7 38.8 41.3 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.6 1.6 2.9 -1.6 25.5 31.1 2.4 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -2.1 1.6 -1.1 33.0 36.2 -2.1 -1.1 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.2 3.8 2.5 -1.7 25.6 30.2 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.8 3.8 2.0 -1.3 30.2 33.9 4.0 5.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.5 3.2 1.6 -1.8 23.9 28.1 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.9 3.9 1.7 -1.4 28.8 32.6 4.3 5.6 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.7 3.9 1.8 -1.2 31.4 34.7 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.8 3.5 2.8 -1.9 24.2 28.8 4.5 6.1 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 1.9 1.4 0.3 -2.5 17.1 21.7 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.8 3.8 1.3 -1.6 25.9 29.9 4.5 5.9 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.9 1.5 2.6 -2.0 21.5 27.0 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.8 3.4 2.4 -1.0 35.7 38.9 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 1.8 1.1 2.4 -2.5 16.8 22.5 3.0 4.6 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.6 1.8 1.3 -0.3 44.6 46.1 0.9 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.9 3.4 3.0 -1.7 24.8 29.7 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 2.1 1.5 2.3 -2.4 17.5 22.7 3.2 4.7 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 2.2 1.5 2.6 -2.5 16.9 22.3 3.3 4.8 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.1 3.9 2.9 -1.6 27.2 31.6 4.5 6.0 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.9 2.6 1.8 -1.5 27.4 31.8 3.1 4.4 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.5 4.5 1.9 -0.6 41.0 42.8 4.0 5.1 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.5 3.0 2.7 -1.4 28.8 33.5 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 2.9 2.4 0.1 -2.4 18.7 23.1 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.9 1.6 2.0 -0.7 38.8 41.4 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.0 1.3 2.5 -2.2 19.6 25.4 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------