***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 7.2 6.7 10.0 113.6 67.5 58.0 2.0 3.8 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.8 8.9 109.5 66.2 55.1 1.6 3.7 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.7 11.6 126.5 71.6 62.9 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 17.2 25.5 25.1 198.1 85.5 76.2 4.8 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 10.5 10.3 13.7 117.2 68.5 62.9 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.0 13.5 122.1 69.7 64.1 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.6 7.3 94.0 60.4 49.4 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 18.1 20.0 17.6 138.7 74.9 69.2 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 9.1 10.3 14.7 137.3 74.7 68.3 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 10.4 11.3 16.5 133.1 73.3 68.0 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 9.5 10.3 15.5 130.9 72.9 67.2 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 8.7 9.7 16.2 141.5 75.8 70.0 2.7 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 7.6 7.4 14.9 115.2 67.9 63.1 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.5 15.4 16.8 135.9 74.3 68.5 3.5 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 12.7 26.3 31.5 270.3 91.9 81.7 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.7 7.5 14.2 119.4 69.4 64.1 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.7 7.5 95.7 60.8 49.4 1.6 3.2 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 9.9 10.2 15.9 126.2 71.1 66.7 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.7 8.9 10.5 122.0 70.3 60.2 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.0 8.1 17.9 117.3 68.1 63.3 3.0 5.0 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.6 13.0 128.1 72.1 65.1 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.2 8.3 10.1 114.7 67.6 56.4 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 9.6 10.6 12.5 133.1 73.5 65.7 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 12.5 14.0 15.3 135.7 74.2 68.4 2.5 5.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.7 11.9 107.6 65.3 57.3 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.9 15.7 132.5 73.1 65.8 1.8 3.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.8 9.6 102.1 63.3 54.0 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 10.3 16.3 25.9 216.8 85.9 77.7 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 15.1 14.7 15.7 115.9 67.7 63.6 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.2 7.0 9.2 111.5 66.8 56.1 1.5 3.6 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------