***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.1 12.5 13.5 128.3 72.1 57.6 3.1 6.0 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.5 12.8 12.7 145.5 76.8 62.5 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.8 13.6 12.1 119.7 69.0 54.9 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.8 11.8 100.4 62.5 49.5 3.2 6.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.2 11.7 99.9 61.5 51.6 3.8 7.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.9 9.1 81.7 54.3 47.3 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.4 13.2 12.8 148.7 77.5 64.1 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.4 11.0 10.8 87.9 55.7 45.3 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.0 10.3 87.6 56.4 46.2 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.2 10.1 82.7 53.6 44.6 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.4 10.5 87.7 55.7 46.1 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.3 9.9 85.1 54.7 44.2 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.9 8.1 10.1 83.0 54.5 46.6 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.0 14.0 13.0 100.1 61.6 49.6 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.1 10.9 11.8 110.7 67.5 52.4 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.5 10.4 90.1 57.8 49.5 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 10.2 12.4 12.4 147.5 77.3 64.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.5 11.2 86.9 54.9 45.4 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 11.8 13.1 12.5 135.8 74.1 59.6 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.0 16.7 104.6 63.0 51.2 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.3 11.3 101.9 62.4 50.3 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 11.2 12.4 12.3 137.0 74.5 60.6 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.0 10.5 12.4 119.8 69.3 55.5 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.4 10.6 11.4 95.0 58.9 47.4 4.0 7.8 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.6 14.1 115.8 68.0 55.4 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.4 10.2 87.5 56.1 48.3 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.6 13.2 14.0 124.0 70.7 56.9 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.0 11.1 101.8 63.7 51.1 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 13.4 13.4 94.9 58.5 48.1 5.1 10.1 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.6 13.1 12.5 139.1 75.1 60.5 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------