***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.4 10.0 90.9 58.2 47.5 1.3 2.5 4.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.6 4.0 9.1 98.6 62.6 50.7 1.7 2.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.3 9.7 90.1 58.3 47.6 2.0 3.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.4 9.8 80.9 54.0 44.4 3.8 6.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.0 10.1 81.5 53.6 45.0 3.4 6.3 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.2 9.6 84.2 54.8 47.2 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.8 9.4 103.8 64.4 51.9 1.9 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 11.0 10.4 80.6 53.1 45.3 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.6 10.6 80.0 52.4 44.2 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.5 10.9 80.0 52.1 44.3 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.7 9.6 79.9 52.8 44.8 3.1 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.9 9.3 80.4 53.4 45.5 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.8 10.1 82.4 53.5 46.3 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.4 12.1 89.8 57.5 46.4 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.9 5.1 9.0 79.9 55.7 44.6 1.5 4.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.8 9.6 82.3 54.0 46.2 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.1 5.0 9.4 107.6 66.0 53.2 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.9 11.6 81.9 52.9 44.2 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.1 4.3 9.2 95.0 61.1 49.5 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.3 13.7 81.1 52.7 44.9 2.2 4.7 8.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.0 10.2 84.0 54.8 45.4 2.5 4.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.6 4.6 9.9 105.2 65.2 52.2 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.7 9.7 90.9 59.0 47.9 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.1 10.9 85.1 55.1 45.1 3.8 6.2 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.7 10.9 86.3 55.8 45.7 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.4 9.6 84.9 56.0 47.3 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.3 10.7 91.2 58.1 47.2 2.5 4.2 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.5 9.3 82.0 55.2 45.5 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.8 9.1 12.4 82.8 53.3 44.3 4.6 8.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.8 9.4 97.2 62.0 50.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------