***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 27.0 28.2 42.8 105.5 60.9 54.9 16.1 23.0 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 34.4 32.3 39.6 114.0 66.4 59.4 16.0 23.5 32.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 37.8 40.6 43.0 107.7 62.2 56.2 21.5 31.5 43.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 55.6 56.5 57.0 120.9 70.6 62.1 24.6 36.8 51.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 25.0 38.0 45.9 96.8 53.6 49.1 25.1 35.6 47.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 33.8 28.9 41.5 93.4 50.3 48.0 19.3 28.7 39.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.1 29.4 37.9 111.6 65.0 58.4 16.0 22.5 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 57.6 51.5 49.0 97.0 53.1 48.9 32.7 48.4 67.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.1 30.7 46.4 97.0 53.5 48.7 20.5 28.8 38.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 23.8 34.5 48.5 94.4 50.6 46.9 23.6 34.0 46.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 35.7 31.9 45.3 96.3 52.8 48.9 20.7 30.1 41.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 32.8 29.3 44.4 96.8 53.4 49.3 17.1 26.9 39.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 36.5 29.6 44.9 91.2 48.2 45.9 20.5 30.8 43.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 48.8 50.0 54.0 104.5 59.8 54.5 31.5 42.7 55.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 49.7 62.8 62.9 145.1 79.8 69.4 17.3 28.7 43.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 31.5 27.3 43.7 94.6 51.5 48.3 17.3 26.4 37.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 27.5 31.2 37.4 112.2 65.3 58.5 16.8 23.6 31.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.2 30.5 50.1 93.4 49.6 46.2 21.0 30.8 42.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 32.0 37.1 41.4 113.8 66.3 59.4 19.6 27.6 37.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 38.0 32.9 61.5 94.6 50.8 46.8 22.8 32.4 43.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 22.9 35.4 44.6 99.9 56.3 51.5 23.4 32.0 41.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 37.0 35.2 41.3 114.9 66.9 59.7 17.6 25.4 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 38.1 34.5 44.3 110.4 64.3 58.1 18.2 26.1 35.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 29.2 44.0 48.6 100.8 56.5 51.5 29.3 39.5 51.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 39.1 36.8 47.1 98.9 55.6 51.3 23.1 33.0 45.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 16.0 26.7 44.3 96.1 52.9 49.5 16.1 24.9 35.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.5 33.8 44.1 101.6 57.9 52.8 20.4 29.1 39.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 41.2 43.4 56.4 127.7 72.1 63.7 15.4 25.1 37.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 57.6 47.4 53.4 92.8 49.1 45.7 33.0 48.4 66.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 34.8 31.8 40.1 112.0 65.3 58.4 16.5 23.7 32.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------