***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 -4.0 -4.0 -3.7 -1.2 29.0 38.4 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -2.5 -3.5 -3.0 -0.3 43.8 48.3 -4.4 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 -2.2 -2.1 -3.8 -1.0 31.2 39.5 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -7.9 -7.8 -7.2 -1.4 30.1 36.8 -7.6 -6.2 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -7.3 -1.7 25.0 32.7 -4.2 -3.1 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -5.7 -6.1 -9.4 -2.1 21.8 28.2 -5.2 -4.1 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 -2.3 -3.5 -3.1 -0.5 41.7 47.0 -4.2 -2.8 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -9.6 -9.7 -9.1 -2.1 22.4 29.3 -9.0 -7.9 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -3.9 -4.0 -6.3 -1.7 25.0 33.0 -3.4 -2.2 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 -4.2 -4.4 -7.9 -1.8 24.5 31.6 -3.7 -2.6 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 -4.8 -5.0 -8.1 -2.1 22.3 29.7 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 -5.6 -5.9 -8.7 -2.4 19.5 27.0 -4.8 -3.7 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 -5.2 -5.6 -9.0 -2.4 18.7 25.5 -4.4 -3.2 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -3.3 -3.0 -5.5 -1.0 32.9 39.4 -3.0 -1.9 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -3.7 -5.9 -1.0 35.2 40.3 -3.9 -2.7 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 -4.1 -4.4 -8.8 -2.3 20.2 27.6 -3.4 -2.3 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -3.1 -2.7 -0.1 48.6 51.5 -4.3 -3.0 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 -6.2 -6.2 -8.4 -1.8 23.7 30.8 -5.6 -4.6 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -3.4 -3.1 -0.4 43.0 47.9 -4.2 -2.8 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 -9.9 -10.1 -10.2 -2.0 23.1 29.0 -9.2 -7.8 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 -4.1 -4.2 -4.8 -1.4 27.1 35.2 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -2.9 -2.5 0.1 52.5 53.9 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -3.5 -3.5 -0.5 40.5 46.3 -4.0 -2.8 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 -4.4 -4.4 -6.1 -1.4 27.3 34.9 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 -4.3 -4.2 -5.8 -1.3 28.7 36.2 -3.9 -2.7 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 -5.0 -5.5 -9.2 -2.7 16.7 23.9 -4.2 -3.1 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -4.3 -4.3 -4.7 -1.3 29.0 37.6 -3.9 -2.5 -1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -5.4 -5.3 -7.1 -1.5 29.1 35.7 -5.0 -3.8 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 -6.9 -7.1 -9.3 -2.0 21.7 28.5 -6.2 -5.0 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -3.4 -3.2 -0.6 38.9 45.2 -3.9 -2.6 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------