***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.3 2.8 -0.3 46.4 48.3 1.7 3.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.5 4.0 3.3 0.3 53.0 53.3 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.8 3.1 0.0 50.0 50.7 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -0.7 0.6 -0.1 48.7 50.0 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.5 1.1 -0.2 47.7 49.1 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.5 -0.2 -0.6 43.6 46.1 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.2 3.0 0.0 50.2 51.5 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.1 -2.1 0.5 -0.4 45.7 47.6 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.0 1.9 -0.2 48.2 49.1 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.5 1.2 -0.2 47.3 48.5 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.5 0.9 -0.4 45.6 47.8 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.3 0.7 -0.6 43.7 46.4 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.9 0.1 -0.8 40.8 44.4 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.8 2.8 0.3 53.6 52.8 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.1 0.9 -0.1 49.4 50.7 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.6 0.4 -0.6 43.9 46.6 3.3 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.2 3.8 3.4 0.5 55.4 54.9 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.3 1.2 -0.2 48.3 48.9 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.3 3.5 0.4 54.1 53.9 1.8 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.5 1.1 -0.5 -0.4 45.5 47.4 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.8 2.4 -0.2 48.2 49.2 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.9 3.7 0.8 58.2 56.8 2.1 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.4 3.6 0.4 54.6 54.0 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.1 2.4 0.1 50.6 50.6 3.1 5.1 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.2 1.2 -0.4 46.0 47.8 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.5 0.0 -0.9 39.0 43.2 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.5 2.0 -0.5 44.8 47.1 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.0 0.8 -0.1 49.1 50.4 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.7 1.2 0.6 -0.2 47.2 48.4 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.3 3.6 3.2 0.1 50.8 51.7 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------