***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 8.7 8.0 6.3 1.2 62.9 60.6 4.2 6.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 8.2 8.0 6.8 1.7 66.8 63.7 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.6 6.6 1.4 64.4 61.3 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.4 2.2 4.1 1.2 62.2 59.6 -1.7 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.1 4.6 1.1 61.0 58.5 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.9 3.1 0.6 56.3 55.0 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.5 6.5 1.5 65.7 63.1 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -0.4 3.8 0.9 59.8 57.4 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.7 5.5 1.2 61.8 59.1 4.9 7.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.3 4.6 1.1 60.7 58.1 4.8 6.9 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.1 4.3 0.8 58.4 56.6 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.7 4.1 0.7 58.1 56.2 4.7 6.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.6 3.4 0.5 55.0 54.2 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 9.4 9.2 6.2 1.7 65.7 62.1 4.7 7.0 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.7 4.5 1.4 63.7 60.8 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.2 3.8 0.6 56.6 55.3 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.1 7.5 6.7 1.8 67.6 64.5 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.8 4.5 1.2 61.6 58.9 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 8.3 8.2 7.0 1.7 67.0 63.7 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.7 4.2 2.5 1.0 60.6 58.2 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.5 6.0 1.3 62.7 59.9 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.8 8.5 7.0 1.9 68.6 65.0 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 8.5 8.4 7.1 1.7 66.9 63.3 3.8 6.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.0 5.9 1.4 63.6 60.4 4.8 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.5 4.7 1.2 62.1 59.8 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.5 3.3 0.6 56.7 55.3 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.0 5.4 1.1 62.1 60.1 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.4 4.4 1.2 62.0 59.4 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.3 3.7 1.2 61.6 58.9 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.9 6.7 1.6 65.6 62.7 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------