***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.1 8.3 86.0 57.6 51.5 2.5 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 4.4 6.1 68.8 49.4 43.3 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.9 7.3 7.9 80.8 54.7 49.6 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 7.6 8.1 68.2 44.9 41.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.8 7.8 10.6 91.4 57.1 52.9 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.0 8.8 78.8 53.3 49.1 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.6 6.5 73.4 51.7 44.7 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.7 9.9 84.0 55.3 51.9 5.6 9.9 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 6.6 9.4 12.3 111.8 66.7 62.2 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 7.9 9.3 11.8 99.2 62.0 57.9 4.1 6.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.4 7.4 9.3 87.2 56.5 52.4 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 7.2 7.0 8.6 82.3 54.7 51.3 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.0 7.6 10.3 91.5 58.7 55.1 3.6 6.0 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 11.3 11.2 9.9 82.6 55.9 51.8 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.9 5.1 5.8 55.1 39.4 35.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.8 5.9 9.4 87.4 56.6 52.7 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.1 6.1 70.3 50.6 43.9 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 7.9 9.0 12.3 97.3 61.4 57.0 4.2 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.6 6.0 6.4 69.6 50.1 45.0 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.3 8.3 11.5 79.4 52.2 48.9 4.7 7.8 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 7.0 8.5 10.3 98.5 61.5 56.4 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.8 4.8 5.7 62.2 47.5 41.9 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 6.6 5.9 7.6 76.2 53.1 49.0 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 9.0 10.1 10.7 92.5 59.8 55.4 4.1 7.5 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.5 7.2 10.6 86.6 55.7 50.5 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 5.2 4.2 8.6 73.8 49.4 46.4 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.7 10.2 91.4 59.2 53.2 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.2 4.5 7.1 65.5 44.4 41.1 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.8 14.1 12.3 93.4 59.8 55.5 6.3 10.8 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.3 4.9 6.7 73.0 51.6 45.6 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------