***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.7 7.5 70.4 49.9 42.5 2.9 5.7 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.2 4.2 5.9 67.3 47.0 39.1 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.9 7.5 70.3 48.9 41.3 3.4 7.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.4 7.3 8.2 65.8 48.0 40.3 4.4 7.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.1 9.4 9.6 78.2 52.9 43.9 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.0 11.4 89.8 58.5 49.3 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.0 6.2 71.7 50.2 41.8 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.9 11.5 87.8 57.2 46.8 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.4 10.5 84.2 54.8 45.5 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.4 11.7 89.3 57.1 47.1 4.8 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.2 9.4 82.9 55.1 44.7 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.2 10.0 84.9 56.4 46.0 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.8 10.6 88.2 57.4 47.6 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.7 10.3 83.1 54.5 45.5 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.3 3.8 6.7 51.8 44.4 36.6 2.1 4.7 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.8 9.5 83.1 56.0 46.1 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.9 5.7 71.9 50.2 40.8 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.0 13.5 94.8 59.3 49.6 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.5 4.6 6.1 66.6 46.5 38.9 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.5 15.0 90.1 58.1 48.4 3.8 6.7 10.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.4 9.0 77.0 51.2 43.3 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.2 4.3 5.8 68.2 47.1 38.7 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.7 5.1 7.1 70.2 48.9 41.0 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.7 11.4 10.9 86.2 55.7 46.5 5.5 9.8 15.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.2 8.2 9.4 75.4 51.7 44.6 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.2 10.0 81.0 55.3 46.0 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 6.9 8.9 75.3 51.7 44.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.9 7.5 61.6 47.7 39.0 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.7 14.1 93.1 58.8 49.2 5.9 10.6 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.6 6.4 67.5 47.4 39.8 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------