***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.5 9.6 93.5 59.0 49.4 1.5 2.7 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.7 7.6 81.0 54.5 45.2 1.3 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 1.5 4.0 9.6 92.9 59.2 48.8 1.3 2.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.1 11.6 97.2 61.4 48.7 4.0 6.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.5 12.8 102.0 63.0 51.2 3.2 5.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.3 12.6 101.2 62.7 49.4 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.0 7.7 81.7 54.9 45.8 1.3 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.7 13.5 13.6 103.5 63.3 50.9 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.8 4.6 13.4 103.8 63.6 52.4 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.5 14.4 105.1 63.9 52.4 2.6 4.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.5 12.1 104.9 64.1 51.6 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.5 7.3 11.5 102.2 63.1 50.2 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.4 12.1 103.0 63.2 50.8 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.0 5.3 12.4 94.6 59.3 48.3 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.3 6.3 9.5 87.2 58.9 44.4 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.0 11.6 103.7 63.6 50.4 2.4 4.1 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.2 7.1 79.6 54.5 44.8 1.3 2.7 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.6 6.5 15.6 103.4 62.9 51.8 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.1 8.0 83.0 55.4 45.7 1.3 2.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.0 17.1 99.9 61.5 49.2 2.6 4.9 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.7 11.7 100.3 62.2 51.2 1.9 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.4 7.6 83.0 56.2 45.9 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.2 9.1 88.2 57.6 47.3 1.2 2.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.7 13.0 99.6 61.6 50.6 2.5 4.7 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.1 5.2 12.0 98.2 61.0 50.6 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.2 11.3 99.0 62.3 48.7 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.6 11.1 96.1 60.0 50.4 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.3 10.8 95.7 61.3 46.9 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.9 16.2 101.5 62.0 50.8 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.7 8.1 84.5 55.8 46.5 1.3 2.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------