***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.9 8.0 90.9 60.6 47.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.1 7.3 91.2 60.9 46.6 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.9 8.3 91.6 60.9 47.1 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.6 12.6 9.6 94.2 62.0 45.9 4.4 8.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.7 9.8 97.0 62.5 47.8 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.6 10.4 93.1 61.3 48.2 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.3 7.4 97.3 62.9 48.3 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.1 17.4 10.6 90.0 60.0 46.9 8.6 13.7 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.7 10.1 97.8 62.6 48.0 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.5 14.9 11.1 97.5 62.4 48.5 5.2 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.7 9.2 95.0 61.9 47.9 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.4 9.3 9.0 87.3 59.3 46.0 3.3 6.8 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.8 9.6 88.4 59.0 46.8 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.9 14.2 10.8 92.2 61.2 47.4 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.8 8.7 86.9 60.8 42.1 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.9 8.8 90.0 60.0 46.3 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.8 7.2 98.1 63.5 47.4 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 12.0 12.4 98.3 62.4 48.8 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.1 7.4 87.9 59.8 45.6 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.0 13.3 86.0 58.5 46.7 3.8 7.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.9 9.1 96.2 62.2 47.6 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.3 7.3 87.8 59.9 45.5 3.5 6.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.4 8.4 8.2 86.9 59.6 45.6 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.3 10.9 97.8 62.8 48.6 4.8 9.0 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.7 10.2 98.9 62.8 48.8 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.3 9.2 80.9 56.3 44.5 2.7 5.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.6 9.4 97.3 62.3 49.3 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.6 10.2 8.8 88.0 60.4 43.1 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.2 18.5 12.9 94.3 61.2 48.1 8.1 13.7 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.1 7.4 90.0 60.5 46.9 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------