***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.5 23.0 33.5 84.8 44.9 43.4 18.2 25.4 33.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 16.7 20.1 26.9 76.8 39.8 38.4 17.2 24.5 33.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 24.0 30.8 33.3 83.6 43.5 42.1 24.6 34.8 46.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 27.9 34.6 37.5 80.7 41.5 39.7 28.9 40.8 54.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 45.0 38.8 42.7 91.9 49.8 46.8 28.3 39.1 51.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 22.0 31.3 43.2 91.0 50.3 46.6 21.8 31.1 41.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 17.0 20.8 27.8 80.5 43.0 41.2 17.2 23.4 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 40.4 54.5 45.7 91.6 50.0 46.3 41.5 54.8 69.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 36.9 35.5 46.4 99.1 55.7 51.6 23.6 32.2 41.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 44.1 41.6 48.9 97.8 54.6 50.5 28.6 38.6 50.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 38.7 33.8 40.1 92.5 50.7 47.2 23.9 33.4 44.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 18.2 27.9 39.1 89.3 48.6 45.1 18.2 28.8 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 41.2 36.1 42.7 92.9 51.5 47.7 25.1 35.2 46.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 52.1 44.2 43.4 88.2 46.6 44.2 35.7 46.2 57.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 16.9 20.7 30.7 69.2 36.7 35.2 18.2 30.0 45.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 20.5 29.4 39.3 91.1 50.1 46.4 20.7 29.4 39.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 27.8 21.3 26.1 79.5 43.0 41.1 17.5 24.1 31.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 39.8 38.2 53.7 98.6 55.3 51.2 26.3 35.1 45.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 20.2 24.1 28.0 76.6 39.0 37.8 21.3 29.4 38.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 40.2 33.3 56.9 89.2 48.1 44.9 24.2 34.5 46.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 39.4 34.4 40.0 92.7 50.3 47.4 25.6 34.4 44.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 17.9 21.1 26.4 75.1 39.3 37.8 18.5 25.9 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 19.0 23.7 31.9 80.3 41.2 39.7 20.1 27.8 36.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 47.8 43.6 45.6 94.0 51.5 48.4 33.2 42.8 53.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 42.0 34.2 42.2 89.3 47.3 45.4 25.2 36.0 48.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 17.5 24.1 39.1 83.6 44.7 42.0 18.4 26.9 37.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 35.6 29.8 39.5 89.6 48.4 46.4 21.5 30.8 41.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 17.0 22.0 34.2 77.1 41.0 38.6 17.4 27.7 40.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 61.6 57.3 55.5 95.8 53.1 49.4 41.2 54.6 69.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 17.8 21.2 28.5 78.4 40.6 39.3 18.0 25.4 34.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------