***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.2 7.1 2.2 71.3 65.7 2.7 5.1 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.8 6.9 2.0 69.1 64.8 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.0 7.6 2.1 69.9 64.9 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 2.3 2.3 4.5 2.0 70.0 64.6 -2.1 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 8.2 8.4 5.8 2.2 70.9 65.0 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.2 4.8 2.4 71.5 65.4 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.3 6.8 1.9 68.8 64.5 2.4 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 0.7 0.5 4.9 1.8 66.7 62.7 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.2 6.5 2.1 69.8 64.4 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 8.6 8.5 5.7 2.0 68.1 63.3 4.2 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.8 5.9 2.2 70.8 65.0 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.4 8.3 5.5 2.0 68.7 64.0 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 8.3 8.4 5.0 2.2 70.7 65.2 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.0 7.0 2.2 69.4 64.4 4.9 7.3 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.7 5.0 1.8 67.7 63.6 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 8.6 8.8 5.4 2.3 71.5 65.3 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.1 6.7 1.8 67.6 63.6 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.1 5.6 1.9 67.3 62.8 3.6 5.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 8.2 8.2 7.3 2.0 69.4 64.9 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 4.3 3.6 3.1 1.3 62.6 60.1 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.8 8.9 7.0 2.1 70.1 64.6 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 8.3 8.3 7.0 1.9 68.3 63.9 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 8.5 8.5 7.7 2.1 69.5 64.7 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 9.7 9.6 6.8 2.1 68.8 63.8 4.6 7.0 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 7.0 7.2 5.6 2.1 70.9 65.2 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.7 4.7 1.9 69.5 64.9 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.1 6.5 2.1 71.4 65.6 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 9.0 8.9 4.8 2.0 69.4 64.3 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 5.1 4.7 4.9 1.8 66.5 62.4 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.7 7.0 2.0 69.8 65.2 2.6 5.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------