***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 12.9 23.0 23.2 220.2 89.7 78.4 2.9 5.7 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 11.3 18.9 20.6 218.2 88.9 78.5 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 17.0 29.4 21.7 203.0 88.0 76.3 3.4 7.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 15.8 25.1 24.0 201.2 87.3 76.3 4.4 7.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 17.1 25.7 22.6 186.7 86.1 74.3 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 15.4 21.6 20.7 180.8 84.4 73.4 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 11.4 19.5 20.2 217.2 88.9 78.0 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 20.0 28.5 23.7 183.3 85.3 74.5 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 14.3 22.7 22.9 186.6 86.3 74.9 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 16.4 23.7 22.6 179.1 84.8 74.1 4.8 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 13.8 21.3 22.2 181.6 85.3 74.1 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 12.8 19.6 22.3 187.0 85.9 75.9 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 15.2 23.3 23.5 185.9 85.8 76.4 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 19.5 29.9 24.2 179.3 84.5 74.3 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 11.9 18.3 20.5 182.3 83.8 71.9 2.1 4.7 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 14.3 22.5 22.8 191.5 86.5 76.1 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 10.8 17.1 19.6 210.3 87.7 77.7 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 15.0 22.1 23.8 180.1 85.0 74.8 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 12.0 20.7 20.8 214.1 88.7 77.8 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 13.4 20.8 32.7 191.7 87.1 75.1 3.8 6.7 10.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 15.5 25.8 23.1 200.6 88.0 76.6 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 11.7 19.9 20.5 209.3 87.8 77.6 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 11.8 20.1 21.2 202.4 87.9 76.3 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 18.5 27.1 22.6 179.7 84.7 74.2 5.5 9.8 15.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 17.6 31.0 26.0 207.5 89.1 77.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 13.5 17.5 21.0 168.1 82.2 73.7 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 14.6 26.2 24.4 213.5 89.4 78.4 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 12.4 19.3 21.0 185.6 84.6 73.2 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 21.1 31.3 26.3 182.8 85.6 74.7 5.9 10.6 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 12.2 21.6 21.1 219.9 89.5 78.6 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------