***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 4.8 5.6 14.0 143.2 76.2 62.8 1.5 2.7 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 4.3 4.8 12.4 136.6 74.5 62.8 1.3 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 4.0 7.0 13.4 138.4 75.0 61.4 1.3 2.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 11.0 13.6 15.9 145.8 76.7 64.0 4.0 6.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 9.0 10.3 15.3 139.3 75.2 63.3 3.2 5.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 9.9 11.7 16.0 150.3 77.8 64.4 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 4.8 5.7 12.5 141.1 75.6 63.8 1.3 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 16.3 20.6 18.1 153.0 78.4 66.5 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 5.4 6.3 15.8 135.6 74.3 62.8 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 7.5 9.0 17.2 141.8 75.9 64.6 2.6 4.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 8.1 9.7 15.5 145.0 76.7 64.8 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 9.2 12.1 16.4 155.4 79.0 66.9 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 11.2 13.9 17.2 154.9 78.9 67.9 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.5 15.3 121.2 70.0 60.3 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.9 12.6 15.4 146.3 76.7 63.0 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 7.6 8.7 15.7 147.7 77.3 65.5 2.4 4.1 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 5.5 6.4 12.3 137.2 74.7 62.8 1.3 2.7 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 7.6 9.0 17.6 137.6 74.8 64.3 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.7 12.4 132.5 73.4 61.1 1.3 2.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 9.1 11.6 23.9 149.9 77.6 67.7 2.6 4.9 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.1 6.7 14.8 138.2 75.0 62.1 1.9 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.2 5.8 12.8 134.5 74.0 61.8 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.4 5.3 12.7 127.5 72.0 59.3 1.2 2.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 8.4 9.3 15.2 131.1 73.0 62.1 2.5 4.7 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 6.7 8.2 16.0 142.5 76.0 62.8 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 10.1 14.2 18.1 169.3 81.4 70.6 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 6.2 7.3 14.9 142.8 76.1 62.8 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 6.9 8.5 14.9 143.4 76.2 62.9 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.1 15.4 19.1 137.9 74.8 64.7 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 4.1 4.6 12.8 140.1 75.4 62.9 1.3 2.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------