***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.8 11.1 101.6 64.0 52.8 2.9 5.6 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.7 10.1 10.5 111.1 67.3 54.9 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.6 11.1 105.1 65.1 53.0 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.0 14.0 12.6 106.0 65.4 53.9 4.4 8.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.9 13.9 12.1 101.2 63.1 53.0 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.8 13.4 117.6 69.0 56.6 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.2 10.1 108.4 66.4 53.8 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.9 19.0 13.0 104.3 63.9 53.9 8.6 13.7 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.5 12.2 98.5 62.1 52.6 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 14.9 13.0 100.8 62.7 53.5 5.2 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.5 12.3 11.7 102.5 63.6 53.0 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.7 12.0 110.0 66.2 54.4 3.3 6.8 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.6 13.9 13.4 113.8 67.7 56.1 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.0 16.6 14.8 109.9 66.6 55.5 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.5 12.7 12.4 112.1 68.1 53.3 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.1 12.4 109.8 66.3 54.6 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.2 10.5 114.9 68.5 54.8 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.6 12.6 14.0 103.5 63.7 54.4 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.9 10.9 111.7 67.4 55.0 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.7 16.7 100.9 63.1 54.0 3.8 7.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.4 12.0 11.6 99.3 62.5 51.8 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.2 11.1 11.6 119.7 69.9 56.1 3.5 6.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.4 10.8 11.5 110.2 66.8 54.3 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.2 13.2 106.2 65.0 54.2 4.8 9.0 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.5 12.3 97.7 62.1 52.3 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 10.5 10.3 13.9 125.2 71.4 57.8 2.7 5.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.8 11.6 99.3 62.9 52.8 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.8 13.0 12.4 111.9 67.5 54.2 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 19.6 14.8 102.9 63.6 54.5 8.1 13.7 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.0 10.6 108.6 66.4 54.2 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------