***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 37.6 42.4 59.3 135.6 77.9 70.1 18.2 25.4 33.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 37.3 43.2 54.7 141.3 79.3 72.1 17.2 24.5 33.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 51.1 55.9 55.8 129.7 75.3 68.0 24.6 34.8 46.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 57.8 60.6 61.5 123.0 71.6 65.4 28.9 40.8 54.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 53.9 56.4 60.0 121.5 71.5 65.3 28.3 39.1 51.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 45.9 47.6 57.7 123.3 72.7 65.9 21.8 31.1 41.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 34.1 39.7 54.6 143.9 80.2 72.8 17.2 23.4 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 70.9 77.0 64.9 123.2 72.8 64.8 41.5 54.8 69.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 43.7 45.9 60.2 120.8 71.4 64.9 23.6 32.2 41.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 42.3 53.6 62.1 118.0 70.2 63.0 28.6 38.6 50.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 46.4 48.7 58.4 120.4 71.0 64.2 23.9 33.4 44.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 46.4 51.2 59.2 126.0 74.2 66.5 18.2 28.8 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 50.8 54.1 62.4 124.8 73.8 67.4 25.1 35.2 46.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 60.0 63.3 65.7 122.0 72.1 65.7 35.7 46.2 57.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 35.2 48.0 55.2 118.0 68.3 61.8 18.2 30.0 45.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 43.2 45.6 59.9 124.9 73.5 67.0 20.7 29.4 39.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 34.8 41.8 55.1 146.9 80.9 73.5 17.5 24.1 31.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 46.8 50.1 66.0 120.9 72.4 64.7 26.3 35.1 45.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 42.9 48.0 54.6 136.8 77.9 70.6 21.3 29.4 38.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 50.1 55.5 87.2 128.1 75.5 66.9 24.2 34.5 46.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 47.5 50.8 59.5 125.9 73.9 67.0 25.6 34.4 44.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 38.4 45.2 57.1 143.2 79.7 72.4 18.5 25.9 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 40.5 44.2 55.5 130.6 75.8 68.4 20.1 27.8 36.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 55.3 57.9 61.0 121.5 72.2 65.3 33.2 42.8 53.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 53.5 59.0 66.2 130.2 75.7 68.9 25.2 36.0 48.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 41.4 45.6 61.4 129.1 75.7 68.8 18.4 26.9 37.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 46.3 52.2 62.6 134.4 77.5 70.2 21.5 30.8 41.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 32.3 43.3 55.3 118.0 68.9 62.5 17.4 27.7 40.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 72.4 78.9 71.7 122.7 73.5 65.5 41.2 54.6 69.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 38.2 43.6 55.2 139.3 78.8 71.5 18.0 25.4 34.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------