***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 6.7 9.7 8.2 4.3 93.8 92.3 1.9 3.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 6.1 8.3 7.6 3.9 91.1 89.2 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 7.5 10.1 8.1 3.9 91.2 89.3 2.3 4.2 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 2.7 3.7 3.9 2.6 80.2 78.7 -2.9 -0.7 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 7.1 8.3 5.8 3.1 84.3 82.4 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 6.7 7.2 4.7 2.7 79.3 78.1 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 5.8 8.4 7.6 4.1 92.2 90.5 1.0 2.7 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 1.5 1.9 4.9 2.3 77.1 75.9 -2.8 -1.1 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 8.2 9.9 7.1 3.4 86.8 84.8 3.0 4.9 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 7.2 8.0 6.0 2.8 80.7 79.1 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 7.4 8.2 5.8 2.9 81.4 79.7 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 7.7 8.3 5.4 2.7 79.6 78.3 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 7.3 7.8 5.7 2.7 79.2 78.1 2.5 4.4 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 7.9 9.1 7.2 2.8 81.0 78.7 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 6.6 7.2 4.6 2.6 78.3 76.9 1.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 8.0 8.9 5.5 2.9 81.0 79.4 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 5.6 7.4 6.9 3.6 89.7 87.8 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 5.2 5.4 5.5 2.3 75.9 74.4 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 6.6 8.9 7.7 3.7 90.2 88.2 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 4.3 4.3 3.4 1.5 68.8 68.1 0.1 2.1 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 7.6 9.9 7.8 3.8 90.1 88.3 2.6 4.4 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 6.4 8.1 6.9 3.2 87.4 85.4 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 6.3 8.0 7.7 3.4 88.4 86.0 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 7.8 8.9 7.1 2.9 81.8 79.8 2.7 4.7 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 6.1 8.4 6.7 4.0 92.1 90.6 1.6 3.2 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 6.9 7.1 4.6 2.4 78.2 77.5 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 7.1 10.2 7.7 4.4 93.8 92.4 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 7.5 8.2 4.4 2.5 77.6 76.0 1.8 4.2 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 4.9 4.9 4.6 1.9 72.3 71.2 0.1 2.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 6.0 8.5 7.9 4.0 92.1 90.4 1.2 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------