***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.4 5.0 5.1 1.0 61.5 59.5 1.7 3.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.1 5.0 1.0 61.9 60.0 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.2 5.2 0.9 60.4 58.8 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -0.1 0.6 3.1 1.1 63.2 60.9 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.1 3.6 1.0 61.8 59.9 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.3 2.6 1.1 62.5 61.0 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.8 4.9 1.0 61.9 60.1 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.1 2.7 0.7 57.7 57.1 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.5 4.3 0.9 60.1 58.5 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.8 3.4 0.7 57.6 56.8 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.5 3.5 1.0 62.0 60.2 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.3 3.3 0.9 60.9 59.5 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.1 3.0 1.0 61.7 60.2 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.2 4.3 0.4 54.6 54.2 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.9 3.3 1.2 64.3 61.8 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.8 3.2 1.1 62.7 60.9 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.6 4.7 0.9 61.2 59.4 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 4.1 3.8 2.9 0.2 52.7 52.9 2.0 3.6 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.4 5.1 1.0 61.5 59.6 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.0 50.3 51.3 0.0 1.5 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.3 4.8 1.0 60.8 59.0 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.5 4.8 0.9 60.9 59.1 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.2 5.2 0.9 59.7 58.2 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.9 5.9 4.2 0.4 54.8 54.4 3.3 5.3 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.8 3.6 0.9 60.6 58.7 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.4 2.8 0.9 61.5 60.3 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.3 4.3 0.9 60.3 58.6 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 7.2 6.8 3.3 1.3 64.4 61.9 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.1 1.5 2.1 0.1 50.6 51.3 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.4 5.0 5.1 1.0 61.8 59.9 1.7 3.7 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------