***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.7 6.0 0.7 57.1 56.2 3.1 5.6 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.8 6.0 0.9 58.8 57.6 3.3 5.6 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.6 6.2 0.6 56.2 55.6 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.4 1.5 4.1 0.8 58.8 57.4 -1.6 0.5 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.1 4.6 0.6 56.6 55.9 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.2 3.6 0.6 57.4 56.6 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.4 5.8 0.9 59.2 57.9 2.8 5.2 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -0.6 3.7 0.4 53.9 54.5 -2.6 -0.9 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.8 5.3 0.6 55.6 55.3 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.2 4.5 0.4 54.5 54.7 4.5 6.7 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 4.4 0.5 55.4 55.2 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.1 4.2 0.4 54.2 54.6 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.1 3.9 0.5 55.3 55.4 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.1 5.4 0.4 53.6 53.9 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.1 4.3 1.0 60.6 58.6 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.4 4.1 0.5 55.6 55.3 4.7 6.8 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.5 5.8 1.0 60.0 58.5 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.3 4.2 0.3 53.0 53.7 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.9 6.1 0.8 57.9 57.0 3.3 5.8 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.9 2.2 0.2 52.1 53.3 0.9 2.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.5 5.8 0.6 56.1 55.6 4.6 6.8 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.4 6.0 1.0 59.5 58.2 3.8 6.1 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.1 6.2 0.6 56.2 55.7 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.9 5.3 0.4 53.6 53.9 5.0 7.4 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.3 4.6 0.8 58.4 57.1 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.5 3.6 0.4 55.2 55.5 4.1 6.0 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.8 5.3 0.8 58.0 56.8 3.5 5.8 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.0 4.3 0.8 58.8 57.3 4.6 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.5 3.3 0.2 52.4 53.3 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.5 6.0 0.8 58.0 57.0 3.0 5.4 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------