***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 5.6 8.9 13.5 123.1 70.3 64.3 2.3 4.6 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 9.1 9.6 12.8 122.6 70.2 64.0 2.2 4.7 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.0 11.6 13.2 117.2 68.0 61.9 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.3 17.4 18.0 138.1 75.2 70.0 4.9 8.5 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 6.7 9.7 15.0 116.7 67.9 62.7 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 10.3 10.6 14.9 131.4 73.0 67.8 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.5 12.6 122.8 70.3 64.5 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 10.6 14.1 15.5 110.8 65.6 60.6 4.9 8.9 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 6.3 8.2 13.8 109.5 64.8 59.5 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.5 8.9 14.3 105.3 63.2 58.1 3.7 6.3 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 6.6 8.5 13.8 109.1 65.3 59.9 3.0 5.5 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 6.8 9.6 14.2 111.9 66.5 61.3 2.7 5.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 9.0 9.0 14.8 121.0 69.8 65.3 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 11.7 14.9 14.9 108.4 64.5 59.1 5.4 9.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 17.1 25.9 22.4 184.1 85.0 78.3 3.2 7.0 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 7.6 7.3 14.3 116.7 68.2 63.2 2.1 4.1 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 7.4 7.5 12.6 122.2 70.1 64.0 1.6 3.6 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.4 8.5 14.8 102.2 61.6 56.7 3.8 6.2 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 7.3 11.2 13.0 120.6 69.5 63.0 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.4 21.8 125.9 70.0 65.6 4.0 7.0 11.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 6.7 9.3 13.6 114.5 66.9 61.5 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 9.5 10.0 13.2 122.7 70.3 64.0 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 6.9 10.0 13.4 116.2 67.9 61.7 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.5 12.2 13.9 104.0 62.4 56.9 5.1 8.7 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 7.0 11.7 15.8 123.0 70.3 65.6 2.9 5.7 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 8.4 9.5 16.8 139.0 75.2 70.6 2.0 4.0 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 6.2 10.0 14.5 120.4 69.4 64.1 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.4 12.4 18.3 146.6 76.9 70.9 2.2 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.5 14.7 16.0 103.0 62.0 57.6 6.1 10.5 16.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 6.1 10.2 13.0 123.8 70.6 64.4 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------