***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.7 10.6 111.8 66.8 56.6 2.7 5.1 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 7.4 9.9 114.3 67.7 54.6 2.1 4.1 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.3 10.8 110.2 65.8 56.1 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.9 13.7 12.9 121.7 69.9 57.7 4.5 7.9 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.0 15.7 12.8 125.1 71.0 58.7 4.6 8.5 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.3 13.3 119.1 68.9 58.7 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.2 9.9 118.7 69.2 55.1 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.3 19.1 13.6 118.2 68.4 56.2 6.9 11.6 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.3 11.9 12.8 123.2 70.4 58.2 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 14.2 13.8 121.9 69.8 57.5 4.4 7.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.9 12.9 12.3 124.2 70.7 57.2 4.2 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.7 11.9 116.1 67.6 55.7 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.9 14.2 12.7 120.2 69.3 58.7 3.6 7.4 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.9 12.6 103.8 62.3 53.9 5.0 8.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.3 9.4 12.3 111.4 66.8 54.4 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.0 12.9 12.3 122.6 70.1 57.8 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.1 8.4 9.5 120.0 69.8 55.1 2.4 4.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.9 12.9 14.9 119.0 68.7 57.4 4.8 7.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.7 10.0 109.3 65.8 54.3 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.6 17.7 117.6 68.2 57.0 3.9 7.0 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.2 11.9 119.7 69.2 58.7 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.0 9.6 109.7 66.1 54.0 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.4 10.7 104.9 63.6 54.5 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.9 13.4 12.9 112.7 66.2 56.0 4.9 8.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.6 12.9 121.1 69.7 59.0 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.8 12.2 115.6 67.6 57.5 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.9 11.8 115.1 67.8 57.3 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.9 12.7 119.1 69.2 56.4 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 17.3 15.8 115.8 67.3 56.2 6.1 10.7 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.7 10.1 111.2 66.5 54.5 2.5 4.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------