***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.0 8.8 8.3 108.2 66.2 52.8 2.3 5.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 11.2 8.8 121.5 70.6 54.5 2.2 5.1 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.2 12.8 8.7 104.7 64.9 52.3 3.5 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.5 16.9 10.1 114.0 68.3 51.9 5.3 9.6 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.3 9.3 96.0 61.6 48.3 4.6 9.1 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.6 9.9 100.6 63.4 50.7 5.0 8.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.1 9.3 8.5 124.3 71.3 54.9 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.6 9.8 87.8 58.1 46.5 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.0 8.9 86.9 57.3 46.3 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.0 9.5 85.3 56.6 46.2 5.5 10.5 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.0 8.8 90.0 59.4 46.8 4.0 8.0 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.7 11.4 9.0 92.3 60.3 46.8 4.1 8.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.7 9.8 102.4 63.6 49.6 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.6 15.0 10.8 100.7 63.2 52.0 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 15.7 10.4 125.4 71.8 52.7 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.9 9.2 98.6 62.8 48.5 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.4 9.4 8.3 125.8 71.7 54.0 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.5 10.4 86.9 56.9 47.3 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.3 11.8 9.0 116.5 69.1 54.0 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.5 12.7 92.8 60.0 48.7 4.6 8.5 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.3 8.6 94.6 60.8 48.9 3.7 7.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.6 10.7 8.8 123.4 71.1 54.1 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.5 9.7 9.5 109.8 67.1 53.5 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.9 9.8 93.2 59.8 49.5 4.4 8.5 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.6 15.9 9.8 113.2 67.9 54.0 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.2 10.1 9.8 107.3 65.7 49.9 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.4 12.6 9.3 114.2 68.1 54.8 3.3 6.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.9 15.2 10.1 114.1 68.5 51.3 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.6 11.3 89.3 58.5 48.3 10.1 15.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.8 11.0 8.7 117.8 69.5 54.6 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------