***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.9 34.1 43.3 113.5 66.5 59.3 17.6 25.0 33.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.9 34.0 40.5 114.1 66.8 58.3 16.8 24.5 33.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 39.6 45.2 43.5 111.2 64.9 58.5 24.0 34.2 46.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 58.5 61.1 53.4 122.5 72.2 63.4 29.5 41.0 54.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 44.2 52.3 50.0 114.7 67.6 60.1 27.7 38.4 51.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 36.1 47.9 51.5 120.2 71.2 61.6 21.8 31.6 43.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 17.0 31.5 39.8 114.2 66.9 58.6 17.1 23.7 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 60.8 66.2 52.5 108.5 62.9 56.5 41.1 54.5 69.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 36.0 40.4 48.7 110.2 64.5 58.1 22.9 31.6 41.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 43.8 47.1 51.3 107.1 62.0 56.3 28.8 38.8 50.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 37.9 43.8 47.6 111.8 65.5 58.1 23.2 32.8 44.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 34.9 42.2 47.7 111.4 65.1 57.4 18.2 29.4 43.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 39.2 50.8 50.4 118.4 69.9 61.3 24.4 34.9 47.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 51.3 52.7 50.3 103.5 59.0 54.3 34.9 46.0 58.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 52.9 61.8 56.6 133.9 76.5 67.1 17.2 29.7 46.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 33.1 41.5 48.3 115.8 68.2 59.8 19.7 28.9 39.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 16.7 31.7 38.9 113.3 66.3 57.2 16.7 23.6 31.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 39.3 40.0 54.1 103.2 58.5 54.6 26.1 35.0 45.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 33.4 38.0 41.5 112.4 65.7 58.0 20.7 28.8 38.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 39.2 43.8 68.0 109.5 63.1 58.2 24.2 34.4 46.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 37.6 43.5 46.3 112.2 65.8 59.4 24.2 33.1 43.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 30.2 33.7 40.5 111.0 64.7 56.6 17.8 25.6 34.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 31.2 34.9 43.7 109.2 63.5 57.2 19.0 27.2 36.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 47.2 48.3 49.0 103.9 59.1 54.9 32.4 42.3 53.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 52.3 51.4 50.8 116.7 68.9 61.2 24.5 35.5 48.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 31.7 44.3 51.8 123.6 72.8 63.0 18.5 27.4 38.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 35.5 41.7 47.0 113.7 66.8 59.4 20.9 30.1 41.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 45.2 48.6 53.1 124.1 72.4 63.2 16.2 27.1 41.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 62.6 61.8 57.2 101.4 57.0 53.0 42.5 55.8 70.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 29.7 34.5 41.3 114.0 66.8 58.8 17.5 25.2 34.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------