***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 9.6 6.4 1.4 64.7 62.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.2 6.4 1.6 66.7 64.2 3.6 6.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.2 6.7 1.5 65.5 63.3 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.6 2.3 4.0 1.1 62.1 61.1 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.3 4.8 1.2 62.8 61.4 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.6 3.5 0.7 57.2 57.0 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.1 7.8 6.2 1.6 66.7 64.2 3.1 5.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.3 0.2 4.0 1.0 61.3 60.0 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.2 5.7 1.3 63.2 61.5 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.6 4.8 1.2 62.0 60.5 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.6 4.7 1.2 62.9 61.5 4.7 7.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.3 4.5 1.1 61.7 60.4 4.9 6.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.9 4.0 0.9 59.6 58.8 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 10.4 9.8 6.0 1.4 63.8 61.9 5.4 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.6 4.1 1.1 61.7 60.9 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.5 4.2 1.0 60.8 59.9 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 7.8 7.6 6.1 1.6 66.7 64.1 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.5 4.6 1.1 61.3 59.9 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 8.9 8.6 6.6 1.7 66.6 64.1 3.6 6.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.7 4.1 2.5 0.8 59.3 58.1 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 9.5 8.9 6.1 1.4 63.8 62.0 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 9.0 8.6 6.3 1.6 66.3 63.7 4.0 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 9.2 8.8 6.8 1.6 66.1 63.7 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.3 9.6 5.9 1.4 63.6 61.8 5.3 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.2 4.7 1.2 63.0 61.5 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.3 3.8 0.8 59.3 58.2 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.0 5.6 1.3 63.8 62.0 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.7 4.2 1.1 61.3 60.5 4.8 7.2 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.7 3.7 1.0 60.6 59.4 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.1 6.5 1.6 66.4 64.0 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------