***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 9.1 7.8 2.2 74.6 66.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 7.6 8.6 7.8 2.2 74.6 67.5 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 8.2 9.2 8.0 2.2 73.4 66.1 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 1.9 2.7 5.7 2.1 73.0 65.2 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.9 9.1 6.3 2.1 72.7 65.0 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.3 8.2 5.0 2.0 71.7 63.9 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.1 8.2 7.6 2.2 74.8 67.5 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.3 0.0 5.1 1.7 69.4 62.9 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.4 7.0 2.2 72.3 65.0 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.8 6.0 1.9 70.3 63.6 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.2 6.1 2.0 71.6 64.1 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.7 8.5 5.7 1.8 70.3 63.3 3.9 5.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.0 5.4 1.9 71.0 63.5 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.1 9.1 7.2 2.0 70.7 64.1 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.4 5.8 2.0 72.1 64.9 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.6 9.7 5.7 2.0 71.8 64.0 4.7 6.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 7.2 8.0 7.5 2.2 74.3 67.5 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.9 5.6 1.8 68.8 62.7 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.7 8.6 8.0 2.3 74.2 67.1 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 3.1 4.1 3.3 1.4 66.3 61.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.9 9.4 7.6 2.2 73.1 65.6 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.6 7.7 2.2 73.4 66.9 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 7.8 8.6 8.0 2.2 73.1 66.1 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.2 7.0 2.0 70.6 64.0 3.9 6.3 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 7.5 8.6 6.3 2.1 74.3 66.1 3.2 5.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.6 5.1 1.8 70.3 63.4 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 8.1 9.3 7.0 2.2 74.8 66.5 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 8.5 9.3 5.9 2.1 72.2 64.7 3.6 6.0 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 4.2 4.7 1.6 67.5 61.9 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 7.5 8.5 7.9 2.2 74.6 67.2 2.9 5.2 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------