***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 14.4 17.1 152.1 78.7 68.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 9.7 12.4 15.6 151.9 78.4 66.8 2.7 5.1 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.4 15.0 16.5 144.3 76.7 66.6 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 12.4 15.7 19.1 145.2 77.4 69.2 4.0 7.1 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 9.8 11.5 17.4 139.5 75.9 66.9 2.9 5.4 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 9.5 11.1 15.0 134.8 74.3 66.6 2.8 5.2 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.9 12.2 16.3 159.7 80.3 69.0 2.3 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 15.0 17.1 18.3 141.5 76.1 68.1 4.7 8.2 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 9.2 10.4 17.1 137.8 75.2 65.8 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 10.7 11.8 18.0 137.5 75.0 66.0 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 9.2 10.8 16.1 139.7 75.8 67.1 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 11.1 12.9 15.7 140.1 75.7 68.0 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 9.3 10.9 15.5 137.3 75.0 68.1 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.7 20.8 18.3 133.8 73.8 64.8 5.8 10.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 14.3 20.7 21.4 165.7 81.6 73.9 2.5 5.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.4 9.0 15.4 138.0 75.3 67.3 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 9.0 12.5 15.7 157.1 79.8 69.1 2.0 4.2 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 10.4 11.5 19.6 135.2 74.2 65.2 3.9 6.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 10.8 13.1 15.5 145.4 76.8 65.6 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 12.2 13.6 26.7 147.6 77.1 70.5 4.1 6.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 10.7 12.8 17.2 144.5 77.0 67.4 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 10.9 13.8 15.6 149.4 78.0 67.9 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.3 11.9 16.0 136.9 74.7 64.0 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 14.8 17.0 18.0 134.5 74.0 64.6 4.9 8.6 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 11.2 14.3 19.4 147.3 77.9 69.2 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 8.3 10.5 17.0 150.7 78.3 71.7 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 10.8 14.1 18.3 149.0 78.0 68.9 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 8.5 11.5 18.3 149.3 78.1 69.9 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 17.6 19.7 21.1 134.5 74.0 65.6 6.2 10.4 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 10.1 13.3 16.0 151.1 78.3 67.0 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------