***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 10.4 15.7 147.8 77.1 63.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 7.3 9.4 14.5 155.0 78.8 65.6 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 12.2 15.7 16.2 151.0 78.0 66.1 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 16.0 20.3 19.0 164.2 80.7 71.7 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.1 20.1 18.3 157.8 79.5 70.7 4.4 8.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 14.7 19.6 19.8 167.5 81.5 73.8 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 7.6 10.2 14.1 153.7 78.5 65.1 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 22.1 28.1 20.1 159.7 80.1 72.4 7.0 12.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 11.8 14.7 17.7 147.6 77.4 67.6 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 14.5 18.2 19.2 152.2 78.5 70.2 3.9 7.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 12.9 17.2 17.7 160.6 80.3 72.0 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 12.5 16.9 18.6 165.9 81.2 73.6 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 15.5 20.9 18.9 163.5 80.7 73.8 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 14.1 18.2 18.5 146.5 77.1 67.1 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 13.1 18.3 19.7 168.7 81.2 72.1 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 13.3 17.6 18.0 162.4 80.5 73.3 3.5 6.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 6.7 8.6 12.9 148.2 77.3 64.5 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 13.1 15.8 20.4 146.6 77.2 69.2 4.5 7.6 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 8.1 10.3 14.9 152.1 78.1 65.5 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 11.8 15.3 24.9 151.4 78.3 69.9 4.2 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 11.1 14.3 16.5 145.0 76.7 65.1 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 7.1 8.8 13.6 144.1 76.3 65.3 2.1 3.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 8.1 10.5 15.6 147.8 77.3 65.3 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 14.1 17.4 18.4 147.6 77.3 68.1 4.5 7.9 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 12.5 15.2 17.1 138.9 75.1 64.4 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 14.2 18.9 20.6 170.7 81.9 75.0 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.5 11.1 16.2 139.3 75.1 62.9 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 13.0 17.5 19.4 171.6 81.9 73.7 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 18.8 22.8 21.9 146.3 77.1 68.7 7.1 11.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.8 10.2 15.2 156.0 79.0 65.9 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------