***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 6.6 10.6 106.5 65.0 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.7 7.6 10.3 114.6 68.2 56.6 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.4 7.0 9.9 98.3 62.0 51.9 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.6 12.2 113.4 67.4 54.3 3.9 7.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.5 11.1 100.8 62.5 51.2 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.4 10.2 13.8 122.1 70.1 55.2 3.4 5.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 7.3 10.4 117.9 68.9 56.7 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.4 12.2 96.6 60.6 51.0 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.5 10.7 92.8 59.3 49.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.8 11.7 93.9 59.3 49.7 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.8 10.7 98.6 61.3 50.4 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.6 7.0 10.9 97.2 61.0 50.6 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.5 12.4 108.3 65.3 53.8 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.6 11.6 91.6 59.1 50.2 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.9 10.3 12.5 116.1 68.6 53.7 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.6 11.6 108.3 65.2 52.7 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.6 10.6 124.5 71.1 59.0 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.1 13.1 93.3 59.3 50.4 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.9 10.1 107.5 65.8 54.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.8 17.1 100.9 62.5 53.7 2.8 5.3 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.0 10.3 96.1 60.7 50.4 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.2 8.3 11.0 118.9 69.4 57.6 2.7 4.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.7 9.9 97.6 62.2 52.3 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.3 11.2 91.0 58.6 49.5 3.6 6.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.8 12.3 109.7 66.1 54.2 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.8 13.1 112.9 67.2 53.8 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 9.5 11.8 110.0 66.2 54.9 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.2 8.5 12.3 117.3 68.8 54.0 2.3 4.5 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.5 14.4 94.3 60.0 51.2 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.6 10.2 109.7 66.4 55.2 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------