***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 7.1 8.8 97.3 61.0 45.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.5 8.1 93.5 60.0 47.5 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.1 10.4 8.9 97.9 61.4 47.9 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 10.6 8.8 85.3 56.2 45.2 4.6 8.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.0 9.1 91.6 57.5 45.8 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.7 9.1 86.5 55.5 46.9 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.5 8.2 97.3 61.6 48.1 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.8 19.0 10.6 99.5 61.3 50.5 9.9 14.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.6 9.7 97.2 60.0 47.0 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.6 10.6 98.3 60.4 49.3 5.3 9.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.4 8.7 92.9 58.4 47.7 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.7 9.2 100.9 62.4 50.8 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.3 9.2 94.5 58.9 48.3 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.0 13.7 10.8 93.9 60.1 49.2 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.4 8.1 80.2 55.7 44.3 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.7 8.6 92.8 58.6 48.2 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.6 7.6 8.3 99.6 63.0 49.0 2.8 5.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.4 12.4 104.0 63.0 51.4 4.8 8.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.9 8.1 91.9 59.3 47.2 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.9 14.4 100.9 62.0 50.9 4.3 8.2 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.2 9.2 95.5 59.3 45.2 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.7 8.5 95.3 61.4 48.5 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.8 8.6 91.3 59.2 47.6 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.7 11.8 11.0 101.7 62.7 50.7 3.5 7.4 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.9 9.6 92.2 58.2 45.5 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.6 9.5 100.1 61.6 48.7 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.7 9.5 96.4 60.4 46.6 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.6 8.4 83.7 56.2 45.6 3.1 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 20.9 13.2 101.7 62.3 50.9 10.5 16.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.9 8.2 94.8 60.4 47.4 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------