***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 42.6 52.2 127.8 74.6 65.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 37.1 41.4 48.4 130.1 76.2 67.6 17.9 25.3 33.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 49.6 53.6 51.4 124.6 73.1 65.0 25.5 35.6 47.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 55.5 63.2 59.1 129.0 75.6 68.3 28.9 40.0 53.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 52.6 57.1 55.9 124.1 73.2 65.6 28.1 38.5 50.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 46.4 53.3 57.7 128.9 76.3 68.4 22.6 32.2 43.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 35.1 39.3 49.0 133.7 77.9 69.0 17.3 23.9 31.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 72.8 78.3 61.3 125.4 74.2 66.7 43.5 55.9 69.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 42.9 44.6 55.2 120.3 71.0 63.4 22.9 31.3 41.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 52.3 55.5 59.5 121.5 72.1 64.5 29.3 39.1 50.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 46.5 51.1 53.2 124.4 73.6 65.8 23.3 33.1 44.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 48.0 55.3 54.5 127.2 75.2 67.5 18.9 30.1 44.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 50.5 57.2 56.1 127.1 75.5 68.2 25.3 35.7 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 63.0 62.9 59.2 117.3 69.7 62.9 36.8 47.7 59.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 51.7 64.3 61.6 135.7 77.5 70.2 16.9 29.5 46.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 42.3 48.4 53.5 127.0 75.3 67.8 20.1 29.3 39.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 36.7 40.5 47.6 133.7 77.6 69.5 18.5 25.3 33.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 47.1 49.6 65.5 120.5 71.7 64.1 27.2 35.7 45.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 40.6 43.3 48.6 125.7 73.9 65.7 21.9 29.4 38.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 49.0 53.2 83.2 126.4 74.4 67.4 24.9 34.7 45.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 45.3 48.4 53.2 122.0 71.8 63.7 25.2 33.9 43.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 37.8 41.5 48.6 128.0 75.1 67.6 20.0 27.2 35.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 39.9 40.1 50.1 119.9 70.7 63.1 20.9 28.4 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 55.6 57.8 58.6 119.7 70.9 63.4 32.8 42.6 53.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 51.1 55.5 58.3 123.9 72.9 65.4 25.5 36.0 48.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 42.9 53.0 60.1 135.5 79.8 71.3 19.0 28.1 39.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 45.0 48.6 55.7 125.4 73.6 65.6 22.2 31.4 42.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 44.4 54.8 58.3 132.5 76.9 69.5 16.1 27.0 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 72.7 76.1 70.7 119.8 71.2 63.8 43.9 56.6 70.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 37.3 41.4 49.6 129.5 75.9 67.2 18.6 26.1 34.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------