***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 8.8 8.7 6.8 1.8 67.9 63.7 3.4 6.0 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 8.6 8.7 7.1 2.1 69.7 65.8 3.6 6.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.5 7.3 1.8 67.3 63.2 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 3.3 3.4 4.5 2.1 70.5 64.3 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 9.1 8.7 5.2 1.6 65.9 61.3 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 8.0 7.1 3.6 1.2 62.2 58.7 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.2 8.2 7.0 2.0 69.4 65.7 3.1 5.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 1.1 0.4 4.4 1.3 63.8 60.0 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.0 9.3 5.9 1.5 64.6 60.4 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 9.7 8.7 5.0 1.3 63.2 59.4 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 9.5 8.8 5.1 1.4 64.4 60.4 4.7 7.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 9.4 8.6 4.9 1.4 64.0 60.2 4.9 6.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 9.4 8.3 4.0 1.2 62.7 59.4 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 10.6 10.0 6.5 1.6 65.4 61.3 5.4 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 8.9 9.3 5.6 2.5 73.6 67.2 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 9.6 8.9 4.5 1.4 63.9 60.1 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 8.0 8.1 7.1 2.1 70.4 66.6 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 8.6 7.7 5.0 1.3 63.0 59.4 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 8.9 8.9 7.3 2.0 68.8 65.0 3.6 6.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 5.3 4.5 3.0 1.3 63.7 59.9 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.1 6.6 1.6 65.9 61.6 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.0 9.1 7.2 2.0 69.9 66.0 4.0 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 9.0 8.9 7.4 1.8 67.2 63.4 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.4 9.8 6.3 1.6 64.9 60.9 5.3 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.9 5.3 1.8 68.3 63.1 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 8.6 7.9 4.0 1.3 64.4 60.6 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 8.6 8.5 6.2 1.7 67.5 63.2 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.0 4.8 2.1 70.0 64.1 4.8 7.2 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.0 4.3 1.3 63.1 59.5 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.5 7.0 2.0 69.1 65.2 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------