***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 6.8 7.2 6.4 1.7 74.1 70.8 3.2 4.8 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 6.5 7.0 6.7 1.9 75.1 72.2 3.0 4.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.9 6.9 1.8 73.9 70.5 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 1.5 2.4 4.1 2.2 79.9 74.3 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.6 4.9 1.6 72.9 68.6 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.5 3.4 1.4 71.8 66.7 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.5 6.5 1.7 73.9 71.1 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -0.2 -0.1 4.1 1.4 71.3 66.3 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.2 5.8 1.6 73.3 68.9 4.5 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.5 4.7 1.4 70.7 66.3 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.8 5.1 1.6 72.4 68.1 4.2 5.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.5 4.6 1.5 71.8 67.0 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.4 4.3 1.4 70.4 66.1 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.5 6.3 1.8 73.4 69.7 4.5 6.2 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 6.8 8.1 5.7 2.6 82.9 77.2 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.1 4.4 1.5 71.9 67.5 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 6.0 6.5 6.5 1.8 75.5 72.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.2 4.6 1.4 70.5 66.1 3.4 4.7 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 6.7 7.3 6.9 1.9 74.8 71.8 3.1 4.7 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 3.7 3.8 2.7 1.3 71.0 65.6 0.9 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.9 6.4 1.6 72.9 69.0 4.2 5.7 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 6.8 7.4 6.7 1.9 75.5 72.4 3.3 4.9 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.6 7.2 7.0 1.8 73.8 70.8 3.4 4.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.1 6.1 1.6 72.3 68.2 4.5 6.0 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 6.2 6.6 5.1 1.7 74.3 70.2 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 6.6 6.7 3.6 1.2 69.3 64.8 4.2 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 6.8 7.1 5.8 1.5 72.3 69.1 3.5 5.0 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 7.7 8.7 4.8 2.3 79.9 74.2 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 3.8 3.9 3.9 1.3 70.2 65.7 1.0 2.3 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.3 6.8 6.6 1.8 74.4 71.5 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------