***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.0 8.6 12.5 120.8 70.0 56.5 2.2 4.4 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 6.6 10.1 112.5 67.8 53.9 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.6 12.0 117.0 68.7 55.8 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.9 14.1 14.0 115.3 68.3 55.0 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.4 16.0 15.6 129.1 72.4 59.3 4.4 8.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 14.0 16.7 16.0 142.6 76.4 61.1 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.3 7.4 10.2 117.1 69.1 55.0 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 20.7 22.0 16.4 126.6 71.6 60.8 7.0 12.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 11.7 12.2 15.6 128.6 72.2 60.3 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 14.2 14.7 16.1 127.2 71.8 61.0 3.9 7.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.6 15.5 130.2 72.7 60.1 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.9 12.3 15.4 128.4 72.1 60.3 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 15.2 17.2 17.2 139.3 75.3 62.5 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.8 14.6 15.4 122.4 70.5 59.3 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.9 11.5 103.3 65.0 50.4 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.2 14.8 16.2 138.5 75.1 60.2 3.5 6.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.9 6.2 9.4 109.6 66.9 53.7 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.9 13.5 17.0 127.4 71.7 61.6 4.5 7.6 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.4 10.4 112.0 67.5 54.2 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 11.9 13.0 21.8 130.9 72.7 62.0 4.2 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.0 12.3 14.5 127.9 72.0 59.6 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.6 9.9 110.7 67.2 55.1 2.1 3.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.6 7.5 11.3 112.7 67.4 54.2 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.1 14.0 14.9 121.6 70.0 58.9 4.5 7.9 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 13.1 12.9 14.7 122.3 70.3 57.3 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.5 15.8 125.6 71.3 60.3 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.5 13.5 121.9 70.3 57.2 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.3 11.1 13.1 114.9 68.4 52.9 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 18.8 20.1 18.5 128.6 72.2 62.2 7.1 11.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.5 7.4 10.6 115.1 68.4 54.5 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------