***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.0 3.0 5.6 54.5 43.0 34.7 2.0 3.8 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.8 5.1 58.4 46.3 35.4 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.3 4.1 6.0 61.4 46.7 37.4 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.9 6.9 7.1 68.1 49.5 37.7 3.9 7.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.8 7.9 74.3 52.3 41.2 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.5 6.9 8.6 82.9 55.9 42.2 3.4 5.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 3.5 4.9 56.3 45.5 34.6 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.0 10.0 83.1 56.3 44.7 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.3 8.6 76.2 53.0 42.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.0 10.0 83.6 56.0 44.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.0 8.4 80.0 54.5 42.4 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.1 8.8 83.3 56.5 43.8 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.4 9.3 85.0 56.9 44.2 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 2.7 5.9 9.2 72.9 51.7 41.6 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.4 4.8 6.1 60.9 47.7 33.6 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.4 8.5 82.2 55.5 42.6 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.3 5.0 58.7 46.6 34.7 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.6 10.9 85.4 56.6 45.8 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.3 4.3 5.5 61.9 47.5 36.8 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.3 12.8 80.1 55.5 45.4 2.8 5.3 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.9 7.1 67.0 48.7 39.3 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.4 4.5 5.6 63.7 48.4 36.5 2.7 4.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.2 6.3 66.2 49.2 38.9 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.3 9.1 78.1 53.8 43.3 3.6 6.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.3 4.8 6.8 59.9 45.7 37.0 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.0 8.1 74.7 53.0 41.8 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.7 6.2 56.8 44.1 36.2 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.9 7.1 71.4 51.5 37.4 2.3 4.5 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.4 11.6 83.7 56.2 46.0 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.1 3.5 5.1 56.3 45.1 34.9 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------