***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.3 7.1 8.7 90.6 58.6 44.4 2.3 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.9 7.6 87.2 57.5 42.7 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.1 9.8 9.0 93.5 60.3 46.5 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.7 8.9 84.0 56.4 43.6 4.6 8.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.2 9.8 90.0 58.2 46.4 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.5 8.7 10.1 92.2 59.8 46.8 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.4 7.3 85.7 56.7 42.1 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.9 18.1 10.6 92.8 59.2 48.2 9.9 14.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.4 10.9 93.2 59.4 47.8 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 12.6 11.6 95.8 60.2 49.3 5.3 9.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.4 9.7 90.9 58.2 47.0 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.5 9.5 92.7 59.4 47.5 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.6 10.2 92.2 59.5 48.0 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.6 11.2 88.9 57.4 46.9 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.8 8.0 80.5 56.9 41.3 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.8 9.6 90.9 58.7 47.0 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.0 7.1 81.8 55.2 40.8 2.8 5.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.7 12.4 97.9 60.9 50.2 4.8 8.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.6 7.3 7.8 86.7 57.2 43.4 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.3 13.1 89.9 57.6 47.0 4.3 8.2 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.3 10.0 93.4 59.6 47.5 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.4 7.0 7.5 78.3 53.2 39.7 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.2 8.3 85.7 56.4 44.9 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.8 11.1 94.8 60.0 49.1 3.5 7.4 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.2 9.4 9.6 88.4 57.1 44.9 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.6 9.1 87.1 57.8 45.4 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 7.7 9.0 88.0 57.1 43.7 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.9 8.6 84.0 57.4 43.5 3.1 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 19.8 12.7 95.0 59.6 49.2 10.5 16.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.7 7.6 7.9 90.1 59.0 43.7 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------