***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.2 22.4 33.5 78.3 40.8 40.1 19.2 26.5 34.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.3 21.3 28.6 76.4 40.9 39.8 17.9 25.3 33.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 40.5 30.4 33.5 79.2 41.6 40.8 25.5 35.6 47.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 27.3 30.3 36.6 74.1 35.3 35.4 28.9 40.0 53.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 44.0 33.8 41.2 84.7 42.9 41.9 28.1 38.5 50.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 22.6 30.5 41.7 89.3 47.0 44.2 22.6 32.2 43.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.3 20.6 28.2 76.8 41.8 40.2 17.3 23.9 31.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 61.9 53.3 46.8 88.6 46.3 44.8 43.5 55.9 69.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 36.0 27.8 42.1 85.1 43.2 42.2 22.9 31.3 41.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 44.0 36.4 46.6 88.2 45.6 44.3 29.3 39.1 50.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 23.6 29.8 42.0 86.7 44.5 43.0 23.3 33.1 44.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 36.5 27.7 42.3 88.8 46.7 44.8 18.9 30.1 44.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 41.1 34.2 45.4 90.5 47.6 45.4 25.3 35.7 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 52.7 43.2 44.3 83.7 43.1 42.3 36.8 47.7 59.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 15.2 15.9 29.4 63.4 31.6 31.4 16.9 29.5 46.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 19.8 27.3 42.6 89.0 46.6 44.2 20.1 29.3 39.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 29.2 21.1 26.8 74.1 39.4 37.9 18.5 25.3 33.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 39.8 34.3 49.6 90.0 47.1 45.7 27.2 35.7 45.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 33.2 25.4 29.9 77.3 40.9 40.1 21.9 29.4 38.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 39.4 33.3 59.5 89.9 47.8 46.4 24.9 34.7 45.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 38.3 29.6 38.5 82.6 42.2 41.4 25.2 33.9 43.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 31.2 22.6 28.5 74.5 39.4 38.2 20.0 27.2 35.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 31.9 24.6 32.8 79.4 41.4 40.9 20.9 28.4 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 47.3 39.2 43.0 85.7 44.3 43.1 32.8 42.6 53.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 41.9 29.6 39.4 79.8 39.8 39.5 25.5 36.0 48.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 33.4 23.3 40.6 82.9 41.2 41.3 19.0 28.1 39.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 36.4 26.1 36.2 79.1 40.4 39.9 22.2 31.4 42.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 15.3 18.2 34.3 73.5 36.7 35.8 16.1 27.0 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 62.1 54.9 52.8 90.4 47.6 46.1 43.9 56.6 70.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 30.2 22.3 29.6 77.1 41.6 40.5 18.6 26.1 34.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------