***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 3.9 4.9 0.5 57.2 56.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.7 4.3 0.0 49.8 51.8 3.1 4.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.3 5.2 0.5 56.9 56.0 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -1.9 0.3 3.0 0.5 56.6 55.4 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 7.3 6.7 4.2 0.9 63.3 59.9 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.5 6.6 3.5 1.5 72.1 66.5 3.5 4.8 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.3 4.2 0.1 50.9 52.3 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -0.3 -0.6 3.6 1.0 65.1 61.2 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.8 7.2 4.9 0.9 62.8 59.6 4.5 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 7.4 6.9 4.2 0.9 63.7 60.2 4.2 5.7 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 7.7 7.3 4.4 1.1 66.6 62.3 4.2 5.8 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 7.4 7.1 4.2 1.2 67.7 63.2 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 7.5 7.5 4.1 1.4 70.8 65.6 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.7 4.7 0.4 55.1 55.0 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.0 3.0 0.1 51.5 51.9 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 8.0 7.8 4.1 1.3 68.6 63.7 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.0 3.8 -0.3 45.9 49.2 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 6.2 5.6 3.8 0.7 61.3 58.6 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.9 4.6 0.0 50.7 52.4 3.2 4.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.7 2.9 1.9 0.6 60.2 57.7 0.9 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.7 5.1 0.7 60.6 58.2 4.2 5.8 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.5 4.0 -0.4 44.7 48.5 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.2 4.9 0.2 52.6 53.6 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.2 6.9 4.8 0.6 58.8 57.1 4.5 6.1 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.1 3.6 0.5 57.0 55.7 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.9 3.8 1.4 71.9 66.7 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.7 4.2 0.5 57.4 56.1 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.8 6.4 3.3 0.5 57.6 56.0 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 3.8 3.1 3.0 0.7 61.2 58.5 0.9 2.3 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.7 4.6 0.2 52.6 53.5 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------