***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 6.3 5.5 0.4 54.1 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.4 5.1 0.3 52.8 54.0 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.7 5.7 0.4 53.9 54.5 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.7 1.6 3.8 0.5 54.5 54.5 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 9.7 7.7 4.5 0.6 55.5 55.0 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.3 3.7 1.1 60.7 58.1 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.0 5.0 0.3 53.0 54.0 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.8 -0.2 4.0 0.8 58.2 56.4 -2.3 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 10.4 8.4 5.2 0.5 55.0 54.6 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.4 8.2 4.6 0.7 56.6 55.4 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 10.0 8.3 4.6 0.7 57.2 56.1 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.2 4.5 0.9 58.7 57.0 5.1 7.2 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.6 8.3 4.2 1.0 59.8 57.8 4.9 7.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 10.7 8.5 5.4 0.5 54.6 54.4 5.5 7.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.5 6.6 3.7 0.3 53.0 53.5 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 10.1 8.6 4.3 0.8 58.2 56.8 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.9 4.8 0.2 51.9 53.1 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.2 4.2 0.6 56.1 54.9 4.6 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.7 5.4 0.3 53.0 54.1 3.7 6.2 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 1.1 4.0 2.3 0.7 57.2 55.4 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 10.0 7.9 5.5 0.5 54.4 54.4 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.7 5.1 0.2 52.0 53.2 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.1 5.8 0.4 53.5 54.2 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.9 8.5 5.3 0.5 54.8 54.5 5.6 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.4 6.5 4.1 0.4 54.2 54.3 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 8.7 7.7 3.9 1.0 60.4 58.6 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.1 4.7 0.4 54.5 54.6 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.3 8.0 4.0 0.5 54.9 54.7 4.9 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 1.3 4.3 3.4 0.7 56.7 55.2 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.4 5.3 0.3 53.3 54.3 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------