***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 13.5 18.9 157.9 80.5 70.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 9.0 11.9 15.9 149.3 78.3 68.5 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 11.8 15.5 17.8 148.8 78.5 68.6 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 12.7 15.1 20.0 146.6 78.1 69.9 4.5 7.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 10.6 12.2 18.9 138.0 75.7 67.6 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 9.9 11.0 16.8 130.3 72.8 67.3 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 8.4 11.1 15.6 148.1 77.9 68.9 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 14.8 16.8 20.8 139.0 75.4 67.7 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 9.1 10.3 19.1 137.9 75.7 66.8 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 10.4 11.4 19.5 131.0 73.3 65.1 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 9.7 10.9 17.9 131.9 73.5 66.1 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 10.4 12.0 18.3 134.7 74.4 67.2 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.0 12.2 18.3 135.3 74.6 68.8 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 17.9 21.7 19.4 136.8 75.3 66.1 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 13.5 17.7 20.6 154.9 79.6 71.2 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 9.4 10.8 18.0 137.1 75.3 68.7 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 8.5 10.5 14.8 141.4 76.0 67.3 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 11.5 12.4 20.6 131.6 73.6 65.2 4.1 6.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 10.0 12.9 16.4 148.5 78.3 68.0 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 13.0 16.5 28.8 158.9 80.5 72.0 4.1 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 9.9 12.0 18.9 144.5 77.4 67.8 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 9.9 11.8 15.7 142.0 76.4 66.8 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 9.4 12.1 17.5 147.6 78.3 68.3 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 14.4 16.7 19.3 137.3 75.3 66.4 5.0 8.5 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 12.1 15.3 20.0 147.4 78.2 68.3 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 10.2 12.5 21.0 157.1 80.4 75.9 2.6 4.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.2 15.1 19.4 152.7 79.4 69.7 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 9.2 11.3 19.5 149.3 78.6 70.9 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 19.3 21.7 22.6 136.7 75.1 67.0 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.2 12.4 16.5 151.0 78.8 68.8 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------