***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 2.8 9.3 93.8 59.8 46.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.9 8.1 83.3 56.7 45.5 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.7 9.0 90.1 58.5 46.3 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.5 10.1 98.9 62.1 49.1 4.1 7.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.6 10.2 98.2 61.2 50.1 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.8 9.8 10.6 99.7 61.8 50.1 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.3 8.0 82.9 55.9 45.6 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.3 15.4 11.1 97.1 60.6 49.0 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.3 10.4 97.0 59.9 49.7 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.2 9.7 11.1 96.4 59.8 49.4 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.5 9.8 100.0 61.8 50.1 3.9 6.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.0 9.6 95.2 59.8 48.0 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.5 9.3 9.9 94.7 59.7 48.5 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.8 10.7 88.1 57.2 47.3 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.8 8.7 9.9 101.8 64.6 50.2 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.3 9.6 98.8 61.4 49.5 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.9 7.7 82.3 55.9 45.5 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.5 12.1 94.3 59.1 49.2 4.1 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.3 8.4 84.8 57.3 45.7 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.0 14.7 97.9 61.3 49.1 3.9 6.7 10.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.6 9.8 97.6 60.5 47.8 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.8 4.0 8.1 84.3 56.9 45.7 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.4 4.1 9.0 86.3 57.6 46.4 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.6 10.6 90.0 57.5 47.4 3.8 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.6 10.4 92.5 58.9 46.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.9 10.2 95.7 60.7 49.1 3.3 6.4 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.7 10.1 92.0 58.7 46.5 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.1 9.7 100.4 63.2 50.1 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 13.1 13.2 95.0 59.6 48.8 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.1 8.4 85.1 57.6 45.9 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------