***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 4.8 10.5 88.8 56.0 46.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.1 10.4 91.6 59.0 48.0 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.2 11.1 98.5 60.8 51.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.6 12.3 99.9 61.2 50.7 3.5 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.8 13.0 108.2 64.6 53.4 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.8 14.1 107.2 64.5 54.0 3.7 6.1 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.6 10.5 91.4 58.9 47.4 2.7 4.9 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.8 13.4 15.0 106.8 63.9 53.4 5.4 9.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.6 13.3 110.7 65.7 54.4 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.0 12.2 14.8 112.4 66.2 55.1 4.4 7.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.7 13.1 112.9 66.5 54.7 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.5 13.1 104.6 63.3 52.9 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.8 13.5 103.0 62.6 52.9 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.0 14.8 114.2 67.0 56.1 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 8.5 11.3 93.7 59.8 48.7 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.2 13.0 107.9 64.6 53.7 3.2 5.6 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.5 10.4 95.2 61.0 49.2 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.6 16.3 111.3 65.6 55.1 3.9 6.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.0 10.7 95.8 60.4 50.0 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.9 19.3 99.0 60.6 51.4 3.6 6.1 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.5 12.0 104.0 62.7 52.2 2.9 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.4 10.9 96.4 61.0 50.1 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.4 11.7 104.5 63.5 53.4 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.9 12.3 14.3 112.1 66.2 55.4 4.6 7.9 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.1 11.9 90.8 56.6 47.6 3.2 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.4 13.3 97.3 60.3 50.9 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.3 11.3 87.6 55.1 45.8 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.6 12.2 101.9 62.6 51.1 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.0 17.6 106.7 63.7 53.6 5.3 8.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 10.4 90.7 58.1 47.5 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------