***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 -5.9 -4.7 -4.2 -1.2 38.0 45.0 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 -6.7 -6.2 -4.7 -2.0 29.3 39.0 -5.7 -3.7 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 -3.5 -2.6 -4.3 -1.5 34.2 42.2 -2.8 -1.1 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -9.2 -8.4 -7.4 -1.6 34.8 41.1 -8.6 -6.9 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -5.5 -4.3 -6.0 -0.9 41.1 46.1 -5.1 -3.5 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -6.8 -5.0 -7.9 -0.3 46.8 49.2 -6.2 -4.7 -3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 -6.1 -5.5 -4.5 -1.9 30.8 39.8 -5.3 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -10.5 -8.6 -7.3 -0.1 48.6 51.2 -10.1 -8.5 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -4.8 -3.6 -6.0 -1.1 39.3 44.9 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -3.5 -7.0 -0.6 44.5 48.5 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -5.4 -4.0 -6.6 -0.7 43.5 47.4 -5.0 -3.4 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -5.9 -4.3 -6.9 -0.3 47.1 50.0 -5.5 -4.0 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -5.6 -3.9 -7.0 -0.4 46.4 49.0 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 -4.4 -3.7 -6.5 -1.7 34.3 41.3 -3.8 -2.3 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 -4.9 -4.4 -6.3 -1.7 33.1 39.2 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -4.5 -3.2 -7.1 -0.7 43.7 47.4 -4.1 -2.7 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -6.1 -6.0 -4.9 -2.2 27.4 37.1 -5.3 -3.5 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -6.9 -5.6 -7.4 -0.7 43.8 48.1 -6.6 -5.0 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 -6.2 -5.5 -4.8 -1.9 30.1 39.6 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -6.3 -8.0 -7.5 0.4 53.6 54.4 -10.1 -8.4 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 -5.4 -4.2 -4.8 -1.2 38.3 44.5 -4.7 -3.0 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -6.4 -6.2 -5.0 -2.2 27.4 37.3 -5.5 -3.6 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 -5.9 -5.2 -5.0 -1.8 31.6 40.6 -5.0 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 -5.4 -4.5 -6.2 -1.3 36.9 43.2 -4.9 -3.3 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -5.7 -4.5 -5.1 -1.1 39.0 45.4 -5.1 -3.4 -1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 -5.6 -3.5 -6.6 0.2 51.6 52.3 -4.9 -3.6 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -4.5 -4.5 -1.1 39.2 45.7 -5.3 -3.3 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -6.3 -5.6 -7.2 -1.7 34.3 40.1 -5.8 -4.2 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -8.0 -6.0 -7.6 -0.1 48.5 51.1 -7.6 -5.8 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 -6.0 -5.2 -4.5 -1.8 31.5 40.7 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------