***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.5 2.2 2.5 -1.4 35.6 37.8 1.9 3.8 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 0.9 0.5 1.8 -2.4 24.4 28.6 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.2 2.5 -1.8 31.9 34.5 2.4 4.5 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.5 -2.4 -0.9 -1.5 35.3 36.7 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.3 3.2 1.1 -1.2 37.8 39.2 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 4.5 4.5 1.5 0.5 54.6 54.3 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.6 0.3 1.8 -2.2 25.7 30.1 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -2.4 0.6 -1.1 39.5 40.6 -3.1 -1.4 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.0 3.4 1.9 -1.5 34.9 36.6 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 2.9 0.9 -1.5 35.4 36.9 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.3 3.5 1.7 -1.1 39.4 40.6 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.3 4.0 1.4 -0.6 43.9 44.6 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 5.1 4.5 2.5 -0.2 48.1 48.5 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 1.6 1.5 1.2 -2.7 25.0 28.1 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.3 2.0 1.2 -1.3 37.7 38.8 1.3 3.5 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 5.9 4.8 1.7 -0.4 45.7 46.3 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 0.4 -0.2 1.2 -2.7 21.0 25.2 1.2 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 3.7 1.6 0.3 -1.9 32.5 34.4 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 0.8 0.6 1.9 -2.4 25.4 29.3 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.9 41.0 42.2 -0.2 1.8 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.5 3.1 2.6 -1.5 35.2 37.1 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 0.7 0.2 1.3 -2.8 20.4 24.4 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.1 1.0 2.0 -2.2 27.5 31.0 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.0 2.3 1.6 -2.2 29.3 32.0 2.8 4.9 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.1 2.1 1.5 -1.3 36.3 37.8 1.7 3.4 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 4.6 4.8 2.0 0.5 55.5 55.3 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.8 2.6 2.2 -1.3 36.6 38.5 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.3 2.8 0.4 -1.2 38.8 39.9 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.7 0.1 0.1 -1.6 35.0 36.9 -0.2 1.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 0.9 0.7 2.1 -2.1 27.8 31.6 1.3 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------