***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 0.6 1.8 2.7 -1.7 33.7 40.5 1.7 3.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 1.0 1.6 2.4 -2.3 28.4 36.8 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.0 3.1 3.1 -1.8 33.6 40.0 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -3.4 -2.9 -0.5 -2.0 31.4 37.1 -2.7 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.3 3.2 1.6 -1.4 36.5 41.7 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.5 3.9 1.5 0.0 50.1 52.1 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 0.6 1.2 2.5 -2.1 29.8 38.0 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -2.6 1.1 -1.1 39.3 44.9 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.8 3.6 2.4 -1.5 35.3 40.5 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.7 1.6 -1.4 37.0 42.5 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.9 2.0 -1.1 39.4 44.3 3.1 5.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.7 4.4 1.9 -0.7 43.1 47.2 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.7 2.3 -0.2 47.7 50.4 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.8 3.8 2.6 -1.9 33.4 39.0 3.8 6.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.7 2.2 0.6 -2.3 28.4 34.1 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.5 1.9 -0.6 44.1 47.8 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 1.0 1.4 2.2 -2.4 27.2 35.3 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.2 2.9 1.5 -1.3 37.8 43.3 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 1.1 1.7 2.5 -2.3 29.3 37.2 2.2 4.3 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.9 41.2 46.7 -0.1 1.6 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.5 3.0 -1.5 35.5 40.9 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 1.5 1.8 2.3 -2.5 26.7 34.5 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 1.6 2.4 2.8 -2.1 31.3 38.2 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.8 3.8 2.7 -1.6 35.1 40.7 3.6 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.1 1.5 -1.7 33.7 40.0 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.2 4.5 1.7 0.0 49.6 51.9 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.3 2.4 2.4 -1.5 34.8 41.4 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.4 0.4 -1.9 32.8 37.9 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -0.5 0.5 1.1 -1.2 38.7 44.4 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.5 -2.1 30.2 38.2 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------