***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.0 4.6 -1.0 40.8 44.9 3.7 6.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.0 4.5 4.3 -1.3 37.9 43.1 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.9 5.0 -1.1 40.0 44.3 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -1.6 -0.5 1.7 -1.3 37.2 41.4 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.8 3.2 -1.0 40.9 44.5 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.4 3.2 0.2 52.2 52.3 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.2 4.5 -1.1 39.7 44.5 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.5 -1.3 2.9 -0.6 44.3 47.5 -2.3 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.6 4.1 -0.9 41.3 45.1 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.7 6.4 3.4 -0.8 42.4 46.1 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.5 3.4 -0.7 43.1 46.5 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.8 3.6 -0.3 46.6 49.0 5.1 7.2 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.2 3.4 0.1 51.1 52.0 4.9 7.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.7 4.5 -1.0 40.8 44.9 5.5 7.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.2 2.1 -1.6 35.0 39.6 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.9 7.1 3.3 -0.4 46.3 48.5 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.1 4.2 4.3 -1.3 37.4 42.8 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.7 3.5 -0.8 42.8 46.5 4.6 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 4.5 4.5 -1.4 37.8 42.9 3.7 6.2 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.1 2.7 1.7 -0.5 44.8 48.2 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.7 6.2 4.5 -1.0 40.7 44.6 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.5 4.3 -1.5 35.8 41.6 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.5 5.1 4.9 -1.3 38.7 43.4 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.9 6.7 4.4 -1.0 41.3 45.2 5.6 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.7 2.9 -1.1 39.2 43.3 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.0 3.4 0.4 54.0 54.1 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.5 5.4 4.1 -0.9 41.1 45.0 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.7 2.1 -1.3 38.1 42.1 4.9 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.4 2.9 3.0 -0.7 43.6 47.3 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.9 4.5 4.4 -1.2 39.0 43.8 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------